Pokemon Go is so big, it has actual scientists trying to figure out the hidden mathematical formulas to every one of its mechanics. Raids have been somewhat of a mystery, but new research suggests that the more you throw in a raid, the better your odds of catching the raid boss.
We have the Silph Road (by way of Eurogamer) to thank for performing the painstaking, scientific work of throwing 6,500 balls at raid bosses and recording the results.
To make a long story short, Silph Road researchers found that there's some unknown factor that is increasing the odds of catching a raid boss the more times you throw a PokeBall at it. They don't know exactly what's influencing this factor, but they do have evidence that such a factor exists.
For those unaware, Pokemon Go has a formula to determine whether or not you catch a particular Pokemon. This formula is a well-known quantity and involves the Pokemon type you're trying to catch, the Pokemon's CR level, what PokeBall you use, berries, throw circle size, curveball usage, and medal bonuses.
Since all that's basically solved, the Silph Researchers controlled for all these factors in hundreds of raid battles to determine whether or not there might be some other factor when it comes to catching raid bosses. And, as it turns out, there is.
The chart below notes a “hidden multiplier” for catching raid bosses in Pokemon Go. Basically, this multiplier would get tacked on to the end of the catch formula. If the hidden multiplier is 1, then that’s like multiplying the formula by 1, which doesn’t do anything and therefore implies there is no hidden multiplier with raid bosses. However, anything other than 1 proves that there is a hidden multiplier affecting your odds of capture.
As you can see, the raid battle starts out with a multiplier of 1, but quickly goes above that after two throws. By the time you’re at nine throws, the multiplier is around 2, meaning you’re twice as likely to capture the raid boss after nine throws.
The exact factors that go into influencing this multiplier are not currently known, and Silph Road suggests more research is needed to dive into whatever this hidden multiplier is.
This research means that it's better to save your best berries and PokeBalls for later in the raid if you only have a limited amount. Good to know as we head into Pokemon Go Fest this weekend.