RNG, or the phenomenon of randomosity, has been the bane of many a gamer, and Pokémon GO is no exception; a dedicated player did the math and found that to hatch a Riolu, players will need to either play an average of 192 days or cough up some serious cash.
The reason for this is random chance. To gain new Pokémon, players can either catch them in the wild or find eggs, throw them in an incubator and walk. The problem at play comes from Riolu's awful hatch rate. The chance of a Riolu hatching from an egg is 7/1000, or .07%. Each incubator can be used 3 times before breaking.
Riolu is picky about the eggs it comes from, as well. If you're looking to add a baby Lucario to your team, you'll need to find a 7km or 10km egg to have a chance. The numbers on those eggs indicate the distance players will need to walk, meaning that A 7km egg will require 7 kilometers, or about 6 miles, of real world walking for a .07% chance to gain a Riolu.
There's a way to speed this process up, and it comes in the form of Super Incubators. These incubators can be purchased from the in-game store, and will speed up the process to hatch an egg. User Fruitymcdoo on Reddit has estimated that players will need to hatch an average of 143 eggs to get a Riolu, which means that some users will find themselves spending even more time than that, while others may be lucky.
The amount of Super Incubators needed to hatch 143 eggs is 48, as each incubator can be used 3 times. The cost of 48 of these incubators is 9,600 coins. For comparison, players who manage to hold gyms with their Pokémon can earn a total of 50 coins a day. The instant that gym is taken, players will need to walk back to that real world location and try again. User Fruitymcdoo calculated how long it would take to get up to 9,600 coins to buy the incubators on gym battles alone, and it came to, you guessed it, 192 days. That means most players who want a Riolu will probably feel pressured to buy the 9,600 coins with real world currency- around $66.00.
If all this sounds complicated, it's because it is. Pokémon has a long history of mathematical formulas that decides what Pokémon will show up, the chance of catching them, and the chance of getting a shiny, alternate colored version. Players on Reddit, however, are understandably frustrated at the insanity at play to try and hatch a Riolu, which will eventually evolve into a Lucario, one of the most popular Pokémon.
"Will this trend continue for future popular Pokemon?" Fruitymcdoo writes. "Will we need to shell out another $60.00 to hatch a Gible? At what point will players just give up on eggs entirely?"